Date
2022-05-26Subject
300 Social sciences ChinaGetreideproduktionLebensmittelnachfrageSzenarioBevölkerungsentwicklungErnährungssicherungMetadata
Show full item record
Aufsatz
Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period
Abstract
The transformation of dietary structure brought about by economic development in populous countries is expected to trigger an increase in grain demand, which will put enormous pressure on the grain supply in these nations and even globally. We simulated nine demand scenarios for 2020–2050 based on China’s dataset for 15 kinds of grains from 1961–2018. The results show that the maximum difference between the predicted grain demand is 323.8 Mt, equal to the total grain consumption of approximately 600 million Chinese people in one year. To capture which demand scenarios will be met when grain productivity gradually improves within reasonable ranges, we present three projections from the production side. In particular, Projection 1 (P1), which maintains productivity at the current level, only fulfills the projected demand for Scenarios 1-LL, 2-LM, 4-ML, and 7-HL and falls short of the maximum value (Scenario 9-HH) by 117 Mt, which requires an additional 250,000 ha of arable land resources to fill the gap. After raising the preset value of grain yield, the productivity of Projection 2 in turn satisfies the demand scenario 5-MM. When both set variables (grain yields and arable area) increase simultaneously, the output of Projection 3 increases by 15.3% over P1. However, it still lags behind the demand of 68 million tons in Scenario 9-HH, thus implying uncertainty in China’s vision of meeting the goal of 95% grain self-sufficiency. Rather than pursuing a single outcome, we discuss multiple possibilities for China’s future grain balance and emphasize the adjusting and compensating role of grain trade and storage in the whole system. Ultimately, this paper calls for a better understanding of the supply–demand gap therein and its future trends to support national grain security as well as global sustainable food policies.
Citation
In: Foods Volume 11 / Issue 11 (2022-05-26) eissn:2304-8158Sponsorship
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 41801192), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (lzujbky-2020-it23), and the Key Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant no. ZDBS-SSW-DQC).Citation
@article{doi:10.17170/kobra-2024102410995,
author={Wang, Xiang and Qiang, Wenli and Niu, Shuwen and Growe, Anna and Yan, Simin and Tian, Nan},
title={Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period},
journal={Foods},
year={2022}
}
0500 Oax 0501 Text $btxt$2rdacontent 0502 Computermedien $bc$2rdacarrier 1100 2022$n2022 1500 1/eng 2050 ##0##http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/16114 3000 Wang, Xiang 3010 Qiang, Wenli 3010 Niu, Shuwen 3010 Growe, Anna 3010 Yan, Simin 3010 Tian, Nan 4000 Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period / Wang, Xiang 4030 4060 Online-Ressource 4085 ##0##=u http://nbn-resolving.de/http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/16114=x R 4204 \$dAufsatz 4170 5550 {{China}} 5550 {{Getreideproduktion}} 5550 {{Lebensmittelnachfrage}} 5550 {{Szenario}} 5550 {{Bevölkerungsentwicklung}} 5550 {{Ernährungssicherung}} 7136 ##0##http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/16114
2024-10-25T09:45:22Z 2024-10-25T09:45:22Z 2022-05-26 doi:10.17170/kobra-2024102410995 http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/16114 This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 41801192), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (lzujbky-2020-it23), and the Key Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant no. ZDBS-SSW-DQC). eng Namensnennung 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ demand scenarios production projections gap population peak China food security 300 Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period Aufsatz The transformation of dietary structure brought about by economic development in populous countries is expected to trigger an increase in grain demand, which will put enormous pressure on the grain supply in these nations and even globally. We simulated nine demand scenarios for 2020–2050 based on China’s dataset for 15 kinds of grains from 1961–2018. The results show that the maximum difference between the predicted grain demand is 323.8 Mt, equal to the total grain consumption of approximately 600 million Chinese people in one year. To capture which demand scenarios will be met when grain productivity gradually improves within reasonable ranges, we present three projections from the production side. In particular, Projection 1 (P1), which maintains productivity at the current level, only fulfills the projected demand for Scenarios 1-LL, 2-LM, 4-ML, and 7-HL and falls short of the maximum value (Scenario 9-HH) by 117 Mt, which requires an additional 250,000 ha of arable land resources to fill the gap. After raising the preset value of grain yield, the productivity of Projection 2 in turn satisfies the demand scenario 5-MM. When both set variables (grain yields and arable area) increase simultaneously, the output of Projection 3 increases by 15.3% over P1. However, it still lags behind the demand of 68 million tons in Scenario 9-HH, thus implying uncertainty in China’s vision of meeting the goal of 95% grain self-sufficiency. Rather than pursuing a single outcome, we discuss multiple possibilities for China’s future grain balance and emphasize the adjusting and compensating role of grain trade and storage in the whole system. Ultimately, this paper calls for a better understanding of the supply–demand gap therein and its future trends to support national grain security as well as global sustainable food policies. open access Wang, Xiang Qiang, Wenli Niu, Shuwen Growe, Anna Yan, Simin Tian, Nan doi:10.3390/foods11111566 grant no. 41801192 ; lzujbky-2020-it23 ; grant no. ZDBS-SSW-DQC China Getreideproduktion Lebensmittelnachfrage Szenario Bevölkerungsentwicklung Ernährungssicherung publishedVersion eissn:2304-8158 Issue 11 Foods Volume 11 false 1566
The following license files are associated with this item: