The efficacy of spatio-temporal predictors in forecasting the risk of Cydia nigricana infestation

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dc.date.accessioned2024-06-21T11:47:59Z
dc.date.available2024-06-21T11:47:59Z
dc.date.issued2024-03-15
dc.description.sponsorshipGefördert im Rahmen des Projekts DEALger
dc.identifierdoi:10.17170/kobra-2024061110325
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/15871
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.doidoi:10.1111/eea.13430
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
dc.subjectinfestation pressureeng
dc.subjectLepidopteraeng
dc.subjectmanagement decisionseng
dc.subjectpea motheng
dc.subjectpheromone trapeng
dc.subjectPisum sativumeng
dc.subjectreduced pesticide applicationeng
dc.subjectrisk forecasteng
dc.subjectspatio-temporal risk factorseng
dc.subjectTortricidaeeng
dc.subject.ddc500
dc.subject.ddc580
dc.subject.ddc630
dc.subject.swdErbsenwicklerger
dc.subject.swdSchmetterlingeger
dc.subject.swdSchädlingsbefallger
dc.subject.swdPheromonfalleger
dc.subject.swdErbseger
dc.subject.swdPrognoseverfahrenger
dc.subject.swdRisikoger
dc.subject.swdWicklerger
dc.titleThe efficacy of spatio-temporal predictors in forecasting the risk of Cydia nigricana infestationeng
dc.typeAufsatz
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
dcterms.abstractThe ability to estimate the risk of pest infestation can help farmers to reduce pesticide application and provide guidance that would result in better management decisions. This study tested whether different combinations of spatial and temporal risk factors may be used to predict the damage potential of pea moth, Cydia nigricana Fabricius (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), a major pest in field pea (Pisum sativum L., Fabaceae). Over four consecutive years, the abundance of pea moth was monitored by placing pheromone traps at various field pea-cultivation sites. We also assessed the phenological development stages and the percentage of damaged seeds per 100 pods collected from each growing pea field in a region of approximately 30 km in diameter. The study found the significant infestation risk indicators to be the time of flowering, the date on which male pea moths are first detected in the monitoring traps and the minimum distance to pea fields that were planted and harvested in the previous growing season. The combination of all three factors using a general additive model approach yielded the best results. The model proposed by this study accurately discriminated between low-infestation and high-infestation fields in 95% of cases.eng
dcterms.accessRightsopen access
dcterms.creatorRiemer, Natalia
dcterms.creatorSchieler, Manuela
dcterms.creatorSaucke, Helmut
dcterms.source.identifiereissn:1570-7458
dcterms.source.issueIssue 7
dcterms.source.journalEntomologia Experimentalis et Applicataeng
dcterms.source.pageinfo636-645
dcterms.source.volumeVolume 172
kup.iskupfalse

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