Aufsatz
The impact of uncertainty on smallholder farmers' income in Kyrgyzstan
Abstract
The farming systems in the mountain areas of Kyrgyzstan are primarily characterised by small-scale crop and livestock activities. Farmers are faced with several environmental, socio-economic and political challenges and constraints that result in significant uncertainties affecting their operations. This paper attempts to model how various sources of uncertainty collectively affected the smallholders’ farm incomes during a mid-term horizon using Monte Carlo simulation. The analyses were based on data collected through a survey of 235 smallholder farms in the medium and high-elevation mountains ranges and expert interviews. We defined a static and a dynamic scenario, the latter of which incorporating likely adjustments in land use and production methods by farmers in response to changing prices and factor costs. Our results suggest that to benefit from improving market opportunities, farmers should adjust and modify their farm management by expanding cash crops in the medium-elevation ranges or increasing herd sizes and fodder cultivation in high-altitude ranges. Results also indicate that farmers in the medium elevations benefit more from these opportunities than farmers in higher altitudes. The paper concludes with some practical recommendations for agricultural policy making in Kyrgyzstan.
Citation
In: Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics (JARTS) Vol. 120 / No. 2 (2019-12-12) , S. 183-195 ; ISSN 2363-6033Additional Information
Gedruckte Ausg. im Verlag Kassel Univ. Press (www.upress.uni-kassel.de) erschienen.Collections
Vol 120, No 2 (2019) (Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics (JARTS))Citation
@article{doi:10.17170/kobra-20191127816,
author={Azarov, Azamat and Maurer, Martin Klaus and Weyerhaeuser, Horst and Darr, Dietrich},
title={The impact of uncertainty on smallholder farmers' income in Kyrgyzstan},
journal={Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics (JARTS)},
year={2019}
}
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2019-12-13T13:20:38Z 2019-12-13T13:20:38Z 2019-12-12 doi:10.17170/kobra-20191127816 http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/11395 Gedruckte Ausg. im Verlag Kassel Univ. Press (www.upress.uni-kassel.de) erschienen. eng Urheberrechtlich geschützt https://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/ agricultural trade farming-systems economy Kyrgyzstan Monte Carlo simulation 630 The impact of uncertainty on smallholder farmers' income in Kyrgyzstan Aufsatz The farming systems in the mountain areas of Kyrgyzstan are primarily characterised by small-scale crop and livestock activities. Farmers are faced with several environmental, socio-economic and political challenges and constraints that result in significant uncertainties affecting their operations. This paper attempts to model how various sources of uncertainty collectively affected the smallholders’ farm incomes during a mid-term horizon using Monte Carlo simulation. The analyses were based on data collected through a survey of 235 smallholder farms in the medium and high-elevation mountains ranges and expert interviews. We defined a static and a dynamic scenario, the latter of which incorporating likely adjustments in land use and production methods by farmers in response to changing prices and factor costs. Our results suggest that to benefit from improving market opportunities, farmers should adjust and modify their farm management by expanding cash crops in the medium-elevation ranges or increasing herd sizes and fodder cultivation in high-altitude ranges. Results also indicate that farmers in the medium elevations benefit more from these opportunities than farmers in higher altitudes. The paper concludes with some practical recommendations for agricultural policy making in Kyrgyzstan. open access Azarov, Azamat Maurer, Martin Klaus Weyerhaeuser, Horst Darr, Dietrich publishedVersion ISSN 2363-6033 No. 2 Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics (JARTS) 183-195 Vol. 120
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