Determinants and Forecasting of Female Labour Force Participation Rate in India: Testing of Feminization U hypothesis

Rami, Gaurang

dc.date.accessioned	2020-07-03T09:14:36Z
dc.date.available	2020-07-03T09:14:36Z
dc.date.issued	2020-06
dc.identifier	doi:10.17170/kobra-202005141259
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/11624
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.publisher	kassel university press
dc.rights	Namensnennung - Weitergabe unter gleichen Bedingungen 4.0 International	*
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/	*
dc.subject	Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average	eng
dc.subject	Correlation	eng
dc.subject	Curvilinear Regression	eng
dc.subject	Female Labour Force Participation Rate	eng
dc.subject	Regression Analysis.	eng
dc.subject.ddc	300
dc.title	Determinants and Forecasting of Female Labour Force Participation Rate in India: Testing of Feminization U hypothesis	eng
dc.type	Working paper
dcterms.abstract	Greater involvement of women within the labour force has economic and social impact. The Female Labour Force Participation Rate (FLFPR) for India remains appallingly low at around 27%, while the male labour force participation rate has been 79.9%. In India, during 1990–2016, the FLFPR (% of female population age 15+) showed a declining trend. In this paper, the determinants of FLFPR for India have been estimated using regression analysis for the time period 1990–2016. Data on all the relevant variables have been taken from World Development Indicators, World Bank. It has been found that FLFPR has strong negative linear correlation with LN GDP (constant 2010 US$), LN GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $), female tertiary school enrollment (% gross), and literacy rate and young female (% of females age 15–24). Results of regression analysis suggest that 87.9% variations in LFPR (% of female population age 15+) in India are explained by independent variables together. To forecast FLFPR, time series analysis with Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) has been applied. The ARIMA (1,2,0) model has been found to be the most suitable for forecasting value of FLFPR (for both, in-sample and out-sample). As per out-sample forecast, FLFPR in India will have increasing trend and it will be around 33.55% in 2035. From the results of trend analysis, scatter plot and correlation analysis, it can be concluded that the declining phase of Feminization U hypothesis has clearly been explained in India during 1990–2016. Results of curvilinear regression and out-sample forecast up to 2035, using the ARIMA technique, suggests that FLFPR (% of female population aged 15+) will have increasing trend; this may explain increasing phase of Feminization U hypothesis in India. To conclude, Feminization U hypothesis in India has been partially reinforced and it will be fully supported if forecasting of FLFPR (% of female population age 15+), LN GDP (constant 2010 US$), and LN GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $) are true. The aim is not only to increase participation of females in labour force, but to create an environment, providing opportunities and freedom for women to attain decent and dignified work which will contribute significantly in the economic empowerment and the holistic development of women, thereby ensuring gender equity in the labour market in India.	eng
dcterms.accessRights	open access
dcterms.creator	Rami, Gaurang
dcterms.extent	36 Seiten
dcterms.isPartOf	ICDD Working Papers ;; No. 29	ger
dc.publisher.place	Kassel
dc.subject.swd	Arbeitswelt	ger
dc.subject.swd	Frau	ger
dc.subject.swd	Beschäftigung	ger
dc.subject.swd	Arbeitsmarktprognose	ger
dc.subject.swd	Indien	ger
dc.type.version	publishedVersion
dcterms.source.series	ICDD Working Papers	ger
dcterms.source.volume	No. 29	ger
kup.iskup	true
kup.series	ICDD Working Papers
kup.subject	Sozialwissenschaft	ger
kup.typ	Monographie
kup.institution	FB 05 / Gesellschaftswissenschaften